But there are many other reasons to believe that, despite what the new Prime Minister, Theresa May says, Brexit might not mean Brexit after all.
The legal complexity of Brexit is only just beginning to dawn – it’s huge. There is currently a legal challenge against the government’s decision not to give Parliament a vote on Brexit. That may end up in the Supreme Court and, if successful, create legal history.
The #BrexitJustice campaign, founded by Marcus J Ball, has already raised more than £100,000 to take Leave campaigners to court for allegedly lying to the public about what a Brexit would mean for the UK. If that case is successful, it could have dramatic implications on the chances of Brexit going ahead.
There is also the issue of Scotland. Theresa May seems anxious to ensure that Scotland doesn’t break away from the UK – but how could that be achieved if the UK really does break away from the EU?
Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has pledged to trigger a second independence referendum for Scotland if the UK triggers Article 50.
Commented The Independent: ‘The more time goes by, the more plausible it becomes that the UK may never actually leave the European Union.‘Leaving the EU is so difficult, and the consequences are so economically damaging, that it may be easier for prime minister Theresa May’s government to endlessly delay the process rather than to actually leave.’
In a note to investors, Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s biggest financial institutions, stated:‘Leaving the EU will cause such massive damage to the UK economy that it might be political suicide for any government to actually leave despite the fact that a majority of people voted Leave in the EU Referendum.’
The firm has predicted that that the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s future following the referendum vote in favour of Brexit will push the UK into a recession by the end of this year.
According to research by Morgan Stanley, if London’s financial services loses its ‘passport’ access to the EU Single Market, it could be devastating, because The City pays 11% of the UK’s entire tax base.
Here’s a summary of ten reasons why Brexit may never actually happen:
1. The Tory government has a majority of only 12 seats.
2. The Prime minister Theresa May is pro-Remain.
3. Over 70% of all MPs are pro-Remain.
4. Losing privileged access to the EU Single Market will seriously damage the economy.
5. Brexit could devastate the City’s financial services which contribute 11% of the UK’s entire tax base.
6. The government faces a General Election in 2020 – immediately following a possible Brexit.
7. Will the Tories really want to go into the election having to defend a policy that damages the UK?
8. The EU will not offer the UK full access to the Single Market without ‘free movement of people’.
9. Over a million UK voters live in EU countries. Most of them would vote against a Brexit government.
10. Triggering Article 50 is reversible before Brexit takes place, if that’s what the country wants.
Jon Danzig is an award winning medical and investigative journalist, formerly at the BBC. He specializes in writing about health, human rights and the European Union. More at: http://www.jondanzig.com